prediction-market almanac
When the next model drops.
Release dates for unreleased AI models — plus the AI milestones, deals and policy moves markets are pricing — inferred from live prediction markets. Each forecast is a market-implied probability distribution — we report the median and an 80% credible interval you can tune yourself.
model releases
Gemini Carbon
Google DeepMind·When Google releases Gemini Carbon.
Next Fable Model
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Fable model (5.2 or later).
OpenAI Astra 6.1
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases Astra 6.1 specifically.
Next GPT Astra
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases the next GPT Astra model (6.1 or later).
Next GPT Sol
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases the next GPT Sol model (6.2 or later).
Next GPT Luna
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases the next GPT Luna model (6.1 or later).
Next Claude Opus
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Claude Opus model (5.6 or later).
Next Grok Model
xAI·When xAI releases the next Grok model (4.8 or later).
Next Z.ai GLM
Z.ai·When Z.ai releases the next GLM model (5.4 or later).
Next GPT Terra
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases the next GPT Terra model (6.2 or later).
Next Claude Sonnet
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Claude Sonnet model (5.6 or later).
Claude 6
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases any Claude 6 model.
GPT-7
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases GPT-7.
Claude Mythos
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases a model called Mythos.
Claude Opus 6
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases Opus 6.
DeepSeek V4
DeepSeek·When DeepSeek releases V4. Kalshi has the series registered but no strikes listed yet.
Not yet listed on any tracked market — we'll surface a forecast as soon as one opens.
Grok 5
xAI·When xAI releases Grok 5.
Kimi K4
Moonshot AI·When Moonshot AI releases Kimi K4.
Llama 5
Meta·When Meta releases Llama 5.
Next Claude Haiku
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Claude Haiku model (5.6 or later).
Next DeepSeek Flash
DeepSeek·When DeepSeek releases its next Flash model.
Next DeepSeek Pro
DeepSeek·When DeepSeek releases its next Pro model.
Next Gemini Argon
Google DeepMind·When Google releases the next Gemini Argon model.
Next Gemini Flash
Google DeepMind·When Google releases the next Gemini Flash model (3.9 or later).
Next Gemini Flash-Lite
Google DeepMind·When Google releases the next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6 or later).
Next Gemini Pro
Google DeepMind·When Google releases the next Gemini Pro model.
SSI Public Model
Safe Superintelligence·When Safe Superintelligence releases its first public model.
Next GPT Image
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases the next GPT Image model (2.6 or later).
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
Gemini 4
Google DeepMind·When Google ships the next major Gemini model.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
ChatGPT 6
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases GPT-6.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
OpenAI Astra
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases Astra.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
Next Mythos-Class Model
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
ChatGPT 5.6
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases GPT-5.6.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
Fable 5
Anthropic·When general access to Fable 5 is (re)opened to US customers.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
products & milestones
Any Company AGI
Industry·When any company is first reported to have achieved AGI.
NVIDIA Vera Rubin
NVIDIA·When NVIDIA releases its Vera Rubin AI platform.
Epoch Index > 170
Industry·When any AI model scores above 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index.
Artificial Analysis Index > 65
Industry·When any AI model scores above 65 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index.
AI Solves a Millennium Problem
Industry·When an AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem.
OpenAI AGI
OpenAI·When OpenAI is first reported to have achieved AGI.
OpenAI Millennium Solution
OpenAI·When OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution.
Recursive Self-Improvement
OpenAI / Anthropic·When OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement.
AI Data Center in Space
Industry·When an AI data center operates in space.
Anthropic Millennium Solution
Anthropic·When Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution.
Anthropic Personal Agent
Anthropic·When Anthropic rolls out a personal AI agent.
ChatGPT Dots on Free
OpenAI·When ChatGPT Dots becomes available on the free plan.
Gemini Spark on Free
Google DeepMind·When Gemini Spark becomes available on the free plan.
Grok Bot on Free
xAI·When Grok Bot becomes available on the free plan.
OpenAI Consumer Hardware
OpenAI·When OpenAI launches a consumer hardware product.
OpenAI Personal Agent
OpenAI·When OpenAI rolls out a personal AI agent.
corporate & IPO
Anthropic IPO
Anthropic·When Anthropic holds an IPO.
Anthropic IPO Announcement
Anthropic·When Anthropic officially announces an IPO.
DeepSeek IPO
DeepSeek·When DeepSeek holds an IPO.
Perplexity IPO Announcement
Perplexity·When Perplexity officially announces an IPO.
AI Bubble Bursts
Industry·When the AI bubble bursts, per Polymarket's resolution criteria.
Anthropic Bankruptcy
Anthropic·When Anthropic announces bankruptcy.
OpenAI Bankruptcy
OpenAI·When OpenAI announces bankruptcy.
OpenAI IPO
OpenAI·When OpenAI holds an IPO.
OpenAI IPO Announcement
OpenAI·When OpenAI officially announces an IPO.
policy & incidents
ChatGPT Outage
OpenAI·When ChatGPT next suffers an outage.
OpenAI Sandbox Escape
OpenAI·When OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape.
US AI Biosecurity Law
US Government·When AI biosecurity safeguards become US law.
US AI Incident Reporting Law
US Government·When mandatory serious AI-incident reporting becomes US law.
Claude in DoW Supply Chain
Anthropic·When Claude is permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain.
Anthropic × Vatican Meeting
Anthropic·When Anthropic and the Vatican next meet.
Anthropic Ban Rescinded
Anthropic·When the US government rescinds its ban on Anthropic.
Anthropic Lab Leak
Anthropic·When an Anthropic lab leak occurs, per Polymarket's resolution criteria.
ChatGPT Full Outage
OpenAI·When ChatGPT next suffers a full outage.
Grok Web Outage
xAI·When Grok's web app next suffers an outage.
US AI Duty of Care Law
US Government·When a federal catastrophic-AI-risk duty of care becomes US law.
US AI Kill Switch Law
US Government·When the US enacts an AI kill switch law.
US AI Safety Audit Law
US Government·When mandatory independent AI safety audits become US law.
US Cabinet-Level AI Official
US Government·When the US has a Cabinet-level AI official.
US Government AI Kill Switch
US Government·When the US authorizes federal authority to initiate an AI shutdown.
US Takes Control of AI Company
US Government·When the US government takes control of any AI company or project.
how it reads
Each dated market is the chance a model ships by that date. Stacked up, they trace a cumulative curve over time — the distribution of when it drops.
the interval
The bar spans the 10th-to-90th percentile dates; the bright tick is the median. An open right edge means the market doesn't reach that far yet.
freshness
Markets are polled once a day and stored, so every estimate is timestamped and its history is charted on each model's page.