prediction-market almanac
When the next model drops.
Release dates for unreleased AI models, inferred from live prediction markets. Each forecast is a market-implied probability distribution — we report the median and an 80% credible interval you can tune yourself.
the board
Gemini 3.5 Pro
Google DeepMind·When Google releases the next Gemini Pro model.
Next Claude Sonnet
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Claude Sonnet model.
Next Claude Haiku
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Claude Haiku model.
ChatGPT 6
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases GPT-6.
Anthropic IPO
Anthropic·When Anthropic holds an IPO.
Anthropic IPO Announcement
Anthropic·When Anthropic officially announces an IPO.
Grok 5
xAI·When xAI releases Grok 5.
OpenAI IPO Announcement
OpenAI·When OpenAI officially announces an IPO.
Any Company AGI
Industry·When any company is first reported to have achieved AGI.
Claude Mythos
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases a model called Mythos.
Llama 5
Meta·When Meta releases Llama 5.
OpenAI AGI
OpenAI·When OpenAI is first reported to have achieved AGI.
OpenAI IPO
OpenAI·When OpenAI holds an IPO.
Gemini 4
Google DeepMind·When Google ships the next major Gemini model. No market listed yet.
Not yet listed on any tracked market — we'll surface a forecast as soon as one opens.
Next Claude Opus
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Claude Opus model.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
ChatGPT 5.6
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases GPT-5.6.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
Fable 5
Anthropic·When general access to Fable 5 is (re)opened to US customers.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
how it reads
Each dated market is the chance a model ships by that date. Stacked up, they trace a cumulative curve over time — the distribution of when it drops.
the interval
The bar spans the 10th-to-90th percentile dates; the bright tick is the median. An open right edge means the market doesn't reach that far yet.
freshness
Markets are polled once a day and stored, so every estimate is timestamped and its history is charted on each model's page.