prediction-market almanac
When the next model drops.
Release dates for unreleased AI models, inferred from live prediction markets. Each forecast is a market-implied probability distribution — we report the median and an 80% credible interval you can tune yourself.
the board
ChatGPT 5.6
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases GPT-5.6.
Fable 5
Anthropic·When general access to Fable 5 is (re)opened to US customers.
Grok 5
xAI·When xAI releases Grok 5.
Anthropic IPO
Anthropic·When Anthropic officially announces an IPO.
ChatGPT 6
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases GPT-6.
OpenAI IPO
OpenAI·When OpenAI officially announces an IPO.
Any Company AGI
Industry·When any company is first reported to have achieved AGI.
Claude Mythos
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases a model called Mythos.
Llama 5
Meta·When Meta releases Llama 5.
OpenAI AGI
OpenAI·When OpenAI is first reported to have achieved AGI.
Gemini 4
Google DeepMind·When Google ships the next major Gemini model. No market listed yet.
Not yet listed on Kalshi — we'll surface a forecast as soon as a market opens.
how it reads
Each dated market is the chance a model ships by that date. Stacked up, they trace a cumulative curve over time — the distribution of when it drops.
the interval
The bar spans the 10th-to-90th percentile dates; the bright tick is the median. An open right edge means the market doesn't reach that far yet.
freshness
Markets are polled once a day and stored, so every estimate is timestamped and its history is charted on each model's page.