prediction-market almanac

When the next model drops.

Release dates for unreleased AI models, inferred from live prediction markets. Each forecast is a market-implied probability distribution — we report the median and an 80% credible interval you can tune yourself.

24 models tracked16 with live markets6 already droppedsources Kalshi · Polymarket

the board

nowmedian80% interval

Sep 2026Feb 2027Jul 2027Nov 2027Apr 2028

Next Claude Sonnet

Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Claude Sonnet model.

Oct 7, 2026

in ~13 d

Sep 27, 2026covers 99% · 8 strikesOI 34.6kOct 28, 2026

Next Gemini Pro

Google DeepMind·When Google releases the next Gemini Pro model.

Oct 10, 2026

in ~2 wk

Oct 1, 2026covers 97% · 10 strikesOI 181.5kNov 8, 2026

Gemini 4

Google DeepMind·When Google ships the next major Gemini model.

Oct 11, 2026

in ~3 wk

Oct 2, 2026covers 97% · 10 strikesOI 424.4kNov 10, 2026

Next Claude Haiku

Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Claude Haiku model.

Oct 15, 2026

in ~3 wk

Oct 15, 2026covers 95% · 3 strikesOI 7.4kNov 10, 2026

Next Z.ai GLM

Z.ai·When Z.ai releases the next GLM model (5.4 or later).

Oct 20, 2026

in ~4 wk

Oct 2, 2026covers 84% · 3 strikesOI 18.6klater →

SSI Public Model

Safe Superintelligence·When Safe Superintelligence releases its first public model.

Nov 22, 2026

in ~8 wk

Oct 13, 2026covers 63% · 4 strikesOI 63.4klater →

Anthropic IPO

Anthropic·When Anthropic holds an IPO.

Nov 26, 2026

in ~9 wk

Nov 4, 2026covers 79% · 7 strikesOI 3.3Mlater →

Anthropic IPO Announcement

Anthropic·When Anthropic officially announces an IPO.

Nov 27, 2026

in ~9 wk

Nov 3, 2026covers 90% · 10 strikesOI 652.7kApr 1, 2027

Grok 5

xAI·When xAI releases Grok 5.

Dec 25, 2026

in ~3 mo

Nov 1, 2026covers 61% · 7 strikesOI 31.1klater →

Any Company AGI

Industry·When any company is first reported to have achieved AGI.

Apr 12, 2027

in ~7 mo

Nov 30, 2026covers 100% · 12 strikesOI 81.7kJul 16, 2027

OpenAI IPO

OpenAI·When OpenAI holds an IPO.

Jun 6, 2027

in ~9 mo

Jan 21, 2027covers 57% · 4 strikesOI 1.2Mlater →

OpenAI AGI

OpenAI·When OpenAI is first reported to have achieved AGI.

Mar 6, 2028

in ~18 mo

Jan 1, 2027covers 66% · 3 strikesOI 379.3klater →

Claude Mythos

Anthropic·When Anthropic releases a model called Mythos.

no median

—covers 6% · 4 strikesOI 227.0klater →

Claude Opus 6

Anthropic·When Anthropic releases Opus 6.

no median

—covers 10% · 3 strikesOI 16.4klater →

DeepSeek V4

DeepSeek·When DeepSeek releases V4. Kalshi has the series registered but no strikes listed yet.

no market yet

Not yet listed on any tracked market — we'll surface a forecast as soon as one opens.

Fable 5

Anthropic·When general access to Fable 5 is (re)opened to US customers.

no market yet

Not yet listed on any tracked market — we'll surface a forecast as soon as one opens.

Llama 5

Meta·When Meta releases Llama 5.

no median

—covers 7% · 1 strikesOI 24.7klater →

OpenAI IPO Announcement

OpenAI·When OpenAI officially announces an IPO.

no median

Feb 3, 2027covers 49% · 9 strikesOI 174.4klater →