prediction-market almanac
When the next model drops.
Release dates for unreleased AI models, inferred from live prediction markets. Each forecast is a market-implied probability distribution — we report the median and an 80% credible interval you can tune yourself.
the board
Gemini 4
Google DeepMind·When Google ships the next major Gemini model.
Next Z.ai GLM
Z.ai·When Z.ai releases the next GLM model (5.4 or later).
Anthropic IPO Announcement
Anthropic·When Anthropic officially announces an IPO.
Anthropic IPO
Anthropic·When Anthropic holds an IPO.
Grok 5
xAI·When xAI releases Grok 5.
OpenAI IPO Announcement
OpenAI·When OpenAI officially announces an IPO.
Any Company AGI
Industry·When any company is first reported to have achieved AGI.
OpenAI AGI
OpenAI·When OpenAI is first reported to have achieved AGI.
Claude Mythos
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases a model called Mythos.
Claude Opus 6
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases Opus 6.
DeepSeek V4
DeepSeek·When DeepSeek releases V4. Kalshi has the series registered but no strikes listed yet.
Not yet listed on any tracked market — we'll surface a forecast as soon as one opens.
Fable 5
Anthropic·When general access to Fable 5 is (re)opened to US customers.
Not yet listed on any tracked market — we'll surface a forecast as soon as one opens.
Llama 5
Meta·When Meta releases Llama 5.
Next Gemini Pro
Google DeepMind·When Google releases the next Gemini Pro model.
OpenAI IPO
OpenAI·When OpenAI holds an IPO.
SSI Public Model
Safe Superintelligence·When Safe Superintelligence releases its first public model.
Next Claude Haiku
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Claude Haiku model.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
Next Claude Sonnet
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Claude Sonnet model.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
Next Claude Opus
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Claude Opus model.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
ChatGPT 6
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases GPT-6.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
OpenAI Astra
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases Astra.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
Next Gemini Flash
Google DeepMind·When Google releases the next Gemini Flash model.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
Next Mythos-Class Model
Anthropic·When Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
ChatGPT 5.6
OpenAI·When OpenAI releases GPT-5.6.
The wait is over — the market settled yes. Its forecast history lives on the detail page.
how it reads
Each dated market is the chance a model ships by that date. Stacked up, they trace a cumulative curve over time — the distribution of when it drops.
the interval
The bar spans the 10th-to-90th percentile dates; the bright tick is the median. An open right edge means the market doesn't reach that far yet.
freshness
Markets are polled once a day and stored, so every estimate is timestamped and its history is charted on each model's page.