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xAI
Grok 5
When xAI releases Grok 5.
shape threshold
coverage 12%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
—
—
earliest
Dec 31, 2026
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By November 30 | Nov 30, 2026 | 2% | 3.8k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before December | Dec 1, 2026 | 7% | 917 | Kalshi ↗ |
| By December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 10% | 12.7k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before 2027 | Jan 1, 2027 | 12% | 6.9k | Kalshi ↗ |