← the board
xAI
Grok 5
When xAI releases Grok 5.
shape threshold
coverage 80%
updated Jun 22, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Sep 7, 2026
in ~3 mo
earliest
Jul 9, 2026
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
History builds after a few daily polls — check back to see how the estimate moves.
underlying markets