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Google DeepMind
Gemini 4
When Google ships the next major Gemini model.
shape threshold
coverage 97%
updated Sep 23, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Oct 11, 2026
in ~3 wk
earliest
Oct 2, 2026
latest
Nov 10, 2026
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By September 30 | Sep 30, 2026 | 7% | 360.0k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | 7% | 20.8k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16, 2026 | 70% | — | Kalshi ↗ |
| By October 31 | Oct 31, 2026 | 82% | 26.3k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | 83% | 4.2k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Nov 15, 2026 | Nov 15, 2026 | 94% | 393 | Kalshi ↗ |
| By November 30 | Nov 30, 2026 | 94% | 9.2k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | Dec 1, 2026 | 96% | 2.2k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Dec 15, 2026 | Dec 15, 2026 | 96% | 46 | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | Jan 1, 2027 | 97% | 1.2k | Kalshi ↗ |