← the board
Google DeepMind
Next Gemini Pro
When Google releases the next Gemini Pro model.
shape threshold
coverage 97%
updated Sep 23, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Oct 10, 2026
in ~2 wk
earliest
Oct 1, 2026
latest
Nov 8, 2026
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By September 30 | Sep 30, 2026 | 8% | 113.0k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | 9% | 3.7k | Kalshi ↗ |
| By October 9 | Oct 9, 2026 | 46% | 759 | Polymarket ↗ |
| By October 15 | Oct 15, 2026 | 64% | 21.1k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16, 2026 | 53% | 4.5k | Kalshi ↗ |
| By October 23 | Oct 23, 2026 | 82% | 136 | Polymarket ↗ |
| By October 31 | Oct 31, 2026 | 84% | 34.1k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | 85% | 3.2k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Nov 16, 2026 | Nov 16, 2026 | 97% | 798 | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | Dec 1, 2026 | 97% | 202 | Kalshi ↗ |