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Google DeepMind
Gemini 3.5 Pro
When Google releases the next Gemini Pro model.
shape threshold
coverage 56%
updated Aug 8, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Aug 29, 2026
in ~3 wk
earliest
Aug 16, 2026
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By August 14 | Aug 14, 2026 | 9% | 178.6k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before Aug 16, 2026 | Aug 16, 2026 | 8% | 30.7k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Aug 21, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | 23% | 5.1k | Kalshi ↗ |
| By August 21 | Aug 21, 2026 | 23% | 81.9k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before Aug 31, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | 54% | 24.0k | Kalshi ↗ |
| By August 31 | Aug 31, 2026 | 58% | 162.2k | Polymarket ↗ |