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Google DeepMind
Next Gemini Pro
When Google releases the next Gemini Pro model.
shape threshold
coverage 10%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
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earliest
—
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 16, 2026 | Nov 16, 2026 | 3% | 3.2k | Kalshi ↗ |
| By November 30 | Nov 30, 2026 | 8% | 13.9k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | Dec 1, 2026 | 9% | 8.6k | Kalshi ↗ |
| By December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 10% | 15.1k | Polymarket ↗ |