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Anthropic
Next Claude Haiku
When Anthropic releases the next Claude Haiku model.
shape threshold
coverage 95%
updated Sep 23, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Oct 15, 2026
in ~3 wk
earliest
Oct 15, 2026
latest
Nov 10, 2026
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By October 15 | Oct 15, 2026 | 69% | 356 | Polymarket ↗ |
| By October 31 | Oct 31, 2026 | 89% | 1.5k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 95% | 5.5k | Polymarket ↗ |