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Anthropic
Next Claude Sonnet
When Anthropic releases the next Claude Sonnet model.
shape threshold
coverage 99%
updated Sep 23, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Oct 7, 2026
in ~13 d
earliest
Sep 27, 2026
latest
Oct 28, 2026
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By September 23 | Sep 23, 2026 | 2% | 1.7k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By September 25 | Sep 25, 2026 | 2% | 3.7k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By September 27 | Sep 27, 2026 | 8% | 1.6k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By September 28 | Sep 28, 2026 | 28% | 39 | Polymarket ↗ |
| By September 29 | Sep 29, 2026 | 35% | 37 | Polymarket ↗ |
| By September 30 | Sep 30, 2026 | 33% | 4.2k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By October 15 | Oct 15, 2026 | 68% | 40 | Polymarket ↗ |
| By October 31 | Oct 31, 2026 | 95% | 13.4k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 99% | 9.9k | Polymarket ↗ |