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Anthropic
Next Claude Sonnet
When Anthropic releases the next Claude Sonnet model.
shape threshold
coverage 91%
updated Aug 8, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Sep 14, 2026
in ~5 wk
earliest
Aug 31, 2026
latest
Dec 29, 2026
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By August 31 | Aug 31, 2026 | 43% | 248 | Polymarket ↗ |
| By October 31 | Oct 31, 2026 | 76% | 237 | Polymarket ↗ |
| By December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 91% | 2.9k | Polymarket ↗ |