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Anthropic
Next Claude Sonnet
When Anthropic releases the next Claude Sonnet model (5.6 or later).
shape threshold
coverage 54%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Jan 23, 2027
in ~3 mo
earliest
Dec 31, 2026
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 38% | 2.5k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By January 31 | Jan 31, 2027 | 54% | 1.7k | Polymarket ↗ |