WTMD

synced Nov 7, 2026

data · Kalshi + Polymarket

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Industry

Any Company AGI

When any company is first reported to have achieved AGI.

shape bucket
coverage 100%
updated Nov 7, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate
Dec 1, 2026
in ~3 wk
earliest
Dec 1, 2026
latest
May 24, 2027
confidence80%
50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability

forecast history

underlying markets

strikedateP(yes)open int.
Before Dec 1, 2026Dec 1, 202650%—Kalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2027Jan 1, 20279%19.0kKalshi ↗
Before Apr 1, 2027Apr 1, 202718%16.9kKalshi ↗
Before Jul 1, 2027Jul 1, 202730%13.9kKalshi ↗
Before Oct 1, 2027Oct 1, 202733%19.2kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2028Jan 1, 202849%10.3kKalshi ↗
Before Apr 1, 2028Apr 1, 202851%11.2kKalshi ↗
Before Jul 1, 2028Jul 1, 202866%5.7kKalshi ↗
Before Oct 1, 2028Oct 1, 202869%5.5kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2029Jan 1, 202976%2.4kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2030Jan 1, 203080%3.0kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2031Jan 1, 203178%4.5kKalshi ↗