WTMD

synced Sep 23, 2026

data · Kalshi + Polymarket

← the board
Industry

Any Company AGI

When any company is first reported to have achieved AGI.

shape bucket
coverage 100%
updated Sep 23, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate
Apr 12, 2027
in ~7 mo
earliest
Nov 30, 2026
latest
Jul 16, 2027
confidence80%
50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability of release

forecast history

underlying markets

strikedateP(yes)open int.
Before Oct 1, 2026Oct 1, 20262%19.4kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2027Jan 1, 202713%10.3kKalshi ↗
Before Apr 1, 2027Apr 1, 202731%8.7kKalshi ↗
Before Jul 1, 2027Jul 1, 202743%8.3kKalshi ↗
Before Oct 1, 2027Oct 1, 202749%9.7kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2028Jan 1, 202874%5.1kKalshi ↗
Before Apr 1, 2028Apr 1, 202875%4.9kKalshi ↗
Before Jul 1, 2028Jul 1, 202878%4.1kKalshi ↗
Before Oct 1, 2028Oct 1, 202880%3.1kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2029Jan 1, 202974%2.3kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2030Jan 1, 203077%2.3kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2031Jan 1, 203178%3.5kKalshi ↗