WTMD

synced Jun 22, 2026

data · Kalshi

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Industry

Any Company AGI

When any company is first reported to have achieved AGI.

shape threshold
coverage 74%
updated Jun 22, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate
Jan 23, 2028
in ~19 mo
earliest
Nov 20, 2026
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability of release

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

forecast history

History builds after a few daily polls — check back to see how the estimate moves.

underlying markets

strikedateP(yes)open int.
Before Jul 1, 2026Jul 1, 20262%5.0kKalshi ↗
Before Oct 1, 2026Oct 1, 20267%3.7kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2027Jan 1, 202713%3.9kKalshi ↗
Before Apr 1, 2027Apr 1, 202717%2.7kKalshi ↗
Before Jul 1, 2027Jul 1, 202731%2.5kKalshi ↗
Before Oct 1, 2027Oct 1, 202742%5.8kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2028Jan 1, 202849%2.5kKalshi ↗
Before Apr 1, 2028Apr 1, 202853%3.0kKalshi ↗
Before Jul 1, 2028Jul 1, 202859%1.4kKalshi ↗
Before Oct 1, 2028Oct 1, 202862%1.3kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2029Jan 1, 202965%952Kalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2030Jan 1, 203070%2.0kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2031Jan 1, 203174%2.2kKalshi ↗