WTMD

synced Aug 8, 2026

data · Kalshi + Polymarket

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Industry

Any Company AGI

When any company is first reported to have achieved AGI.

shape threshold
coverage 77%
updated Aug 8, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate
Jan 24, 2028
in ~18 mo
earliest
Jan 17, 2027
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability of release

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

forecast history

underlying markets

strikedateP(yes)open int.
Before Oct 1, 2026Oct 1, 20263%3.9kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2027Jan 1, 20279%5.0kKalshi ↗
Before Apr 1, 2027Apr 1, 202715%2.7kKalshi ↗
Before Jul 1, 2027Jul 1, 202727%4.8kKalshi ↗
Before Oct 1, 2027Oct 1, 202737%7.0kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2028Jan 1, 202849%3.5kKalshi ↗
Before Apr 1, 2028Apr 1, 202854%3.5kKalshi ↗
Before Jul 1, 2028Jul 1, 202860%2.4kKalshi ↗
Before Oct 1, 2028Oct 1, 202863%1.5kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2029Jan 1, 202968%1.3kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2030Jan 1, 203072%2.3kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2031Jan 1, 203177%3.0kKalshi ↗