← the board
OpenAI
OpenAI IPO Announcement
When OpenAI officially announces an IPO.
shape threshold
coverage 47%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
—
—
earliest
Jan 30, 2027
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | Dec 1, 2026 | 1% | 20.0k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | Jan 1, 2027 | 2% | 35.4k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | Feb 1, 2027 | 11% | 17.9k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | Mar 1, 2027 | 22% | 10.2k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | Apr 1, 2027 | 28% | 8.5k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before May 1, 2027 | May 1, 2027 | 33% | 7.5k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | Jun 1, 2027 | 47% | 12.3k | Kalshi ↗ |