WTMD

synced Aug 8, 2026

data · Kalshi + Polymarket

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OpenAI

OpenAI IPO Announcement

When OpenAI officially announces an IPO.

shape threshold
coverage 67%
updated Aug 8, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate
Mar 24, 2027
in ~8 mo
earliest
Nov 11, 2026
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability of release

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

forecast history

underlying markets

strikedateP(yes)open int.
Before Sep 1, 2026Sep 1, 20261%148.7kKalshi ↗
Before Oct 1, 2026Oct 1, 20264%29.8kKalshi ↗
Before Nov 1, 2026Nov 1, 20269%23.3kKalshi ↗
Before Dec 1, 2026Dec 1, 202613%21.2kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2027Jan 1, 202725%32.1kKalshi ↗
Before Feb 1, 2027Feb 1, 202734%7.4kKalshi ↗
Before Mar 1, 2027Mar 1, 202738%7.0kKalshi ↗
Before Apr 1, 2027Apr 1, 202754%8.9kKalshi ↗
Before May 1, 2027May 1, 202756%6.8kKalshi ↗
Before Jun 1, 2027Jun 1, 202767%9.8kKalshi ↗