WTMD

synced Jun 22, 2026

data · Kalshi

← the board
OpenAI

OpenAI IPO

When OpenAI officially announces an IPO.

shape threshold
coverage 90%
updated Jun 22, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate
Nov 13, 2026
in ~5 mo
earliest
Sep 7, 2026
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability of release

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

forecast history

History builds after a few daily polls — check back to see how the estimate moves.

underlying markets

strikedateP(yes)open int.
Before Jul 1, 2026Jul 1, 20261%95.1kKalshi ↗
Before Aug 1, 2026Aug 1, 20263%80.1kKalshi ↗
Before Sep 1, 2026Sep 1, 20266%74.6kKalshi ↗
Before Oct 1, 2026Oct 1, 202626%32.9kKalshi ↗
Before Nov 1, 2026Nov 1, 202645%23.9kKalshi ↗
Before Dec 1, 2026Dec 1, 202657%21.7kKalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2027Jan 1, 202763%33.3kKalshi ↗
Before Feb 1, 2027Feb 1, 202769%7.0kKalshi ↗
Before Mar 1, 2027Mar 1, 202775%7.2kKalshi ↗
Before Apr 1, 2027Apr 1, 202778%3.9kKalshi ↗
Before May 1, 2027May 1, 202784%3.6kKalshi ↗
Before Jun 1, 2027Jun 1, 202790%4.6kKalshi ↗