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Anthropic
Anthropic IPO
When Anthropic holds an IPO.
shape threshold
coverage 87%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Nov 23, 2026
in ~2 wk
earliest
Nov 18, 2026
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By November 15, 2026 | Nov 15, 2026 | 0% | 400.0k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 16, 2026 | Nov 16, 2026 | 4% | 27.6k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 17, 2026 | Nov 17, 2026 | 5% | 31.1k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 18, 2026 | Nov 18, 2026 | 12% | 27.5k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 19, 2026 | Nov 19, 2026 | 28% | 25.4k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 20, 2026 | Nov 20, 2026 | 47% | 111.8k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 23, 2026 | Nov 23, 2026 | 49% | 16.0k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 24, 2026 | Nov 24, 2026 | 62% | 9.7k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 25, 2026 | Nov 25, 2026 | 73% | 65.9k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 30, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | 77% | 712.4k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By December 15, 2026 | Dec 15, 2026 | 85% | 391.3k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By December 31, 2026 | Dec 31, 2026 | 87% | 1.7M | Polymarket ↗ |