Anthropic

Anthropic IPO

When Anthropic holds an IPO.

shape threshold

coverage 75%

updated Aug 8, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate

Oct 24, 2026

in ~3 mo

earliest

Sep 24, 2026

latest

later →

confidence80%

50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability of release

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

forecast history

underlying markets

strike	date	P(yes)	open int.
By September 15, 2026	Sep 15, 2026	3%	84.7k	Polymarket ↗
By September 30, 2026	Sep 30, 2026	14%	332.2k	Polymarket ↗
By October 31, 2026	Oct 31, 2026	60%	275.7k	Polymarket ↗
By December 31, 2026	Dec 31, 2026	75%	268.6k	Polymarket ↗