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OpenAI
OpenAI AGI
When OpenAI is first reported to have achieved AGI.
shape threshold
coverage 67%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Sep 27, 2027
in ~11 mo
earliest
Jan 24, 2027
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets