Llama 5

When Meta releases Llama 5.

shape insufficient

coverage 9%

updated Aug 8, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate

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earliest

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latest

later →

confidence80%

50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability of release

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

Only one date strike is currently listed, so this is a single threshold rather than a full distribution. The estimate will sharpen as Kalshi opens more strikes.

forecast history

underlying markets

strike	date	P(yes)	open int.
Before 2027	Jan 1, 2027	9%	24.1k	Kalshi ↗