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OpenAI
ChatGPT 6
When OpenAI releases GPT-6.
shape threshold
coverage 88%
updated Aug 8, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Sep 22, 2026
in ~6 wk
earliest
Aug 26, 2026
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By August 14, 2026 | Aug 14, 2026 | 1% | 134.8k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By August 21, 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 | 5% | 105.4k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By August 31, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 | 15% | 148.4k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | Sep 1, 2026 | 15% | 37.7k | Kalshi ↗ |
| By September 30, 2026 | Sep 30, 2026 | 64% | 176.7k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | Oct 1, 2026 | 61% | 27.0k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | Nov 1, 2026 | 68% | 12.4k | Kalshi ↗ |
| By December 31, 2026 | Dec 31, 2026 | 88% | 120.3k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before 2027 | Jan 1, 2027 | 83% | 13.9k | Kalshi ↗ |