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US Government
US Government AI Kill Switch
When the US authorizes federal authority to initiate an AI shutdown.
shape threshold
coverage 26%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
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earliest
Apr 9, 2027
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets