← the board
US Government
US AI Incident Reporting Law
When mandatory serious AI-incident reporting becomes US law.
shape threshold
coverage 59%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Oct 16, 2027
in ~11 mo
earliest
Jan 19, 2027
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets