OpenAI / Anthropic

Recursive Self-Improvement

When OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement.

shape threshold

coverage 73%

updated Nov 7, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate

Dec 12, 2027

in ~13 mo

earliest

Dec 31, 2026

latest

later →

confidence80%

50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

forecast history

underlying markets

strike	date	P(yes)	open int.
By December 31, 2026	Dec 31, 2026	8%	5.9k	Polymarket ↗
Before Jan 1, 2027	Jan 1, 2027	15%	893	Kalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2028	Jan 1, 2028	52%	93	Kalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2029	Jan 1, 2029	73%	73	Kalshi ↗