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OpenAI
OpenAI Sandbox Escape
When OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape.
shape insufficient
coverage 98%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Nov 16, 2026
in ~8 d
earliest
Nov 16, 2026
latest
Nov 16, 2026
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability
Only one date strike is currently listed, so this is a single threshold rather than a full distribution. The estimate will sharpen as the markets list more strikes.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By October 31 | Nov 1, 2026 | 7% | 5.2k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 15 | Nov 16, 2026 | 98% | 2.0k | Polymarket ↗ |