OpenAI

OpenAI Consumer Hardware

When OpenAI launches a consumer hardware product.

shape insufficient

coverage 12%

updated Nov 7, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate

—

earliest

Dec 31, 2026

latest

later →

confidence80%

50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

Only one date strike is currently listed, so this is a single threshold rather than a full distribution. The estimate will sharpen as the markets list more strikes.

forecast history

underlying markets

strike	date	P(yes)	open int.
By December 31, 2026	Dec 31, 2026	12%	104.5k	Polymarket ↗