OpenAI

OpenAI Bankruptcy

When OpenAI announces bankruptcy.

shape threshold

coverage 22%

updated Nov 7, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate

—

earliest

Mar 1, 2028

latest

later →

confidence80%

50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

forecast history

underlying markets

strike	date	P(yes)	open int.
By December 31, 2027	Dec 31, 2027	9%	287.5k	Polymarket ↗
By December 31, 2028	Dec 31, 2028	18%	137.2k	Polymarket ↗
By December 31, 2029	Dec 31, 2029	22%	122.9k	Polymarket ↗