Moonshot AI

Kimi K4

When Moonshot AI releases Kimi K4.

shape threshold

coverage 29%

updated Nov 7, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate

—

earliest

Dec 31, 2026

latest

later →

confidence80%

50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability of release

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

forecast history

underlying markets

strike	date	P(yes)	open int.
By December 31, 2026	Dec 31, 2026	12%	23.7k	Polymarket ↗
By March 31, 2027	Mar 31, 2027	29%	6.5k	Polymarket ↗