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xAI
Next Grok Model
When xAI releases the next Grok model (4.8 or later).
shape insufficient
coverage 60%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Nov 30, 2026
in ~3 wk
earliest
Nov 30, 2026
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
Only one date strike is currently listed, so this is a single threshold rather than a full distribution. The estimate will sharpen as the markets list more strikes.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By November 30 | Nov 30, 2026 | 60% | 4.8k | Polymarket ↗ |