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OpenAI
Next GPT Sol
When OpenAI releases the next GPT Sol model (6.2 or later).
shape threshold
coverage 97%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Nov 15, 2026
in ~7 d
earliest
Nov 15, 2026
latest
Dec 17, 2026
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By November 15 | Nov 15, 2026 | 59% | 5.6k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 30 | Nov 30, 2026 | 82% | 10.2k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 97% | 2.3k | Polymarket ↗ |