← the board
OpenAI
Next GPT Astra
When OpenAI releases the next GPT Astra model (6.1 or later).
shape threshold
coverage 97%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Nov 13, 2026
in ~5 d
earliest
Nov 9, 2026
latest
Dec 11, 2026
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By November 9 | Nov 9, 2026 | 8% | 20.8k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 11 | Nov 11, 2026 | 19% | 12.7k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 12 | Nov 12, 2026 | 46% | 2.1k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 13 | Nov 13, 2026 | 49% | 21.6k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 15 | Nov 15, 2026 | 58% | 145.9k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 30 | Nov 30, 2026 | 85% | 72.9k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By December 15 | Dec 15, 2026 | 92% | 29.1k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 97% | 185.8k | Polymarket ↗ |