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OpenAI
GPT-7
When OpenAI releases GPT-7.
shape threshold
coverage 87%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Jun 29, 2027
in ~8 mo
earliest
Mar 1, 2027
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before March, 2027 | Mar 1, 2027 | 14% | 3.3k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before June, 2027 | Jun 1, 2027 | 37% | 1.3k | Kalshi ↗ |
| By June 30, 2027 | Jun 30, 2027 | 51% | 14.3k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before September, 2027 | Sep 1, 2027 | 53% | 52 | Kalshi ↗ |
| By December 31, 2027 | Dec 31, 2027 | 87% | 11.8k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before 2028 | Jan 1, 2028 | 83% | 77 | Kalshi ↗ |