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Z.ai
Next Z.ai GLM
When Z.ai releases the next GLM model (5.4 or later).
shape threshold
coverage 84%
updated Sep 23, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Oct 20, 2026
in ~4 wk
earliest
Oct 2, 2026
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By September 30 | Sep 30, 2026 | 6% | 11.5k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By October 15 | Oct 15, 2026 | 33% | 100 | Polymarket ↗ |
| By October 31 | Oct 31, 2026 | 84% | 7.1k | Polymarket ↗ |