Google DeepMind

Gemini Spark on Free

When Gemini Spark becomes available on the free plan.

shape insufficient

coverage 22%

updated Nov 7, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate

—

earliest

Dec 31, 2026

latest

later →

confidence80%

50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

Only one date strike is currently listed, so this is a single threshold rather than a full distribution. The estimate will sharpen as the markets list more strikes.

forecast history

underlying markets

strike	date	P(yes)	open int.
By December 31	Dec 31, 2026	22%	768	Polymarket ↗