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Google DeepMind
Gemini Carbon
When Google releases Gemini Carbon.
shape threshold
coverage 99%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Nov 10, 2026
in ~2 d
earliest
Nov 9, 2026
latest
Nov 22, 2026
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By November 9 | Nov 9, 2026 | 3% | 26.7k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 10 | Nov 10, 2026 | 42% | 3.8k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 11 | Nov 11, 2026 | 67% | 39.0k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 13 | Nov 13, 2026 | 80% | 28.7k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 15 | Nov 15, 2026 | 82% | 53.2k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 30 | Nov 30, 2026 | 99% | 32.1k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 98% | 18.2k | Polymarket ↗ |