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Anthropic
Next Fable Model
When Anthropic releases the next Fable model (5.2 or later).
shape threshold
coverage 97%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Nov 11, 2026
in ~3 d
earliest
Nov 9, 2026
latest
Dec 7, 2026
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By November 9 | Nov 9, 2026 | 20% | 12.0k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 10 | Nov 10, 2026 | 38% | 22.7k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 12 | Nov 12, 2026 | 56% | 17.0k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 19 | Nov 19, 2026 | 77% | 55.2k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 30 | Nov 30, 2026 | 88% | 25.7k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By December 31 | Dec 31, 2026 | 97% | 73.2k | Polymarket ↗ |