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Industry
Epoch Index > 170
When any AI model scores above 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index.
shape threshold
coverage 96%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Dec 9, 2026
in ~4 wk
earliest
Dec 1, 2026
latest
Mar 22, 2027
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability
forecast history
underlying markets