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DeepSeek
DeepSeek IPO
When DeepSeek holds an IPO.
shape threshold
coverage 65%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Oct 23, 2027
in ~12 mo
earliest
Feb 6, 2027
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2026 | Dec 31, 2026 | 2% | 13.2k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By March 31, 2027 | Mar 31, 2027 | 22% | 16.9k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By June 30, 2027 | Jun 30, 2027 | 40% | 8.6k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By September 30, 2027 | Sep 30, 2027 | 45% | 12.1k | Polymarket ↗ |
| By December 31, 2027 | Dec 31, 2027 | 65% | 11.0k | Polymarket ↗ |