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Anthropic
Claude 6
When Anthropic releases any Claude 6 model.
shape threshold
coverage 89%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
May 1, 2027
in ~6 mo
earliest
Dec 31, 2026
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability of release
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 31, 2026 | Dec 31, 2026 | 19% | 1.9k | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Mar 31, 2027 | Mar 31, 2027 | 42% | 3.5k | Kalshi ↗ |
| By March 31, 2027 | Mar 31, 2027 | 38% | 21.8k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before Jun 30, 2027 | Jun 30, 2027 | 68% | 319 | Kalshi ↗ |
| By June 30, 2027 | Jun 30, 2027 | 73% | 13.2k | Polymarket ↗ |
| Before Sep 30, 2027 | Sep 30, 2027 | 83% | 200 | Kalshi ↗ |
| Before Dec 31, 2027 | Dec 31, 2027 | 91% | — | Kalshi ↗ |
| By December 31, 2027 | Dec 31, 2027 | 87% | 11.3k | Polymarket ↗ |