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OpenAI
ChatGPT Outage
When ChatGPT next suffers an outage.
shape threshold
coverage 70%
updated Nov 7, 2026
80% credible interval
median estimate
Nov 15, 2026
in ~7 d
earliest
Nov 15, 2026
latest
later →
confidence80%
50%95%
Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.
cumulative probability
The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.
forecast history
underlying markets
| strike | date | P(yes) | open int. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By November 15 | Nov 15, 2026 | 57% | 297 | Polymarket ↗ |
| By November 30 | Nov 30, 2026 | 70% | 831 | Polymarket ↗ |