OpenAI

ChatGPT Full Outage

When ChatGPT next suffers a full outage.

shape insufficient

coverage 19%

updated Nov 7, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate

—

earliest

Dec 1, 2026

latest

later →

confidence80%

50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

Only one date strike is currently listed, so this is a single threshold rather than a full distribution. The estimate will sharpen as the markets list more strikes.

forecast history

underlying markets

strike	date	P(yes)	open int.
By November 30	Dec 1, 2026	19%	4.6k	Polymarket ↗