Anthropic

Anthropic × Vatican Meeting

When Anthropic and the Vatican next meet.

shape threshold

coverage 39%

updated Nov 7, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate

—

earliest

Dec 8, 2026

latest

later →

confidence80%

50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

forecast history

underlying markets

strike	date	P(yes)	open int.
Before Dec 1, 2026	Dec 1, 2026	8%	—	Kalshi ↗
Before Jan 1, 2027	Jan 1, 2027	20%	895	Kalshi ↗
By December 31	Jan 1, 2027	16%	4.4k	Polymarket ↗
Before Jul 1, 2027	Jul 1, 2027	39%	2	Kalshi ↗