Anthropic

Anthropic Lab Leak

When an Anthropic lab leak occurs, per Polymarket's resolution criteria.

shape threshold

coverage 7%

updated Nov 7, 2026

80% credible interval

median estimate

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earliest

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latest

later →

confidence80%

50%95%

Spans the 10th–90th percentile of the distribution — higher confidence widens the range, pulling the earliest date back and the latest date forward.

cumulative probability

The market doesn't yet price enough probability to resolve the upper bound at this confidence — the latest date is open-ended.

forecast history

underlying markets

strike	date	P(yes)	open int.
By December 31, 2026	Dec 31, 2026	2%	39.1k	Polymarket ↗
By June 30, 2027	Jun 30, 2027	7%	126.3k	Polymarket ↗